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In §4.4 we are introduced to the concept of conditional probability. The notation P(A | B) denotes the probability of event A occurring given that we know event B has occurred.

  • What is probability? How is it different from conditional probability?
  • What is an everyday example of a question that is based on conditional probability? Create one.
  • Now consider the Monty Hall Problem introduced in the following video:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

  • After watching this video, we know that if we are given the option to switch doors that, probabilistically speaking, it is in our best interest to switch.
  • Explain WHY the chance of winning after the host opens a zonk door is NOT 50/50.
  • Explain why it is in your best interest to switch doors after a zonk door is opened.
  • If the game were based on four doors, and Monty opened two zonks after you had picked your door, what would be the chance of winning? Why?
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