Model Facts

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This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case “JetBlue Airways IPO Valuation” (Case 45).
This spreadsheet was prepared by Professor Michael Schill. Copyright © 2004 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail tosales@dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.
Rev. Jan. 20, 2011

Model Facts

Model Facts

JetBlue TN v3.0
This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case, “JetBlue Airways IPO Valuation” (UVA -F- 1415)
Revised, February 2007
Copyright (C) 2004, by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation.

Exhibit 7

Exhibit 7
JETBLUE AIRWAYS IPO VALUATION
Recent Valuation Multiples
Actual for 2001 Estimates for 2002
Price/ Share Book Equity/ Share Book Debt/ Share EBITDA*/ Share EBIT/ Share Earnings/ Share EBIT/ Share Earnings/ Share
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
AirTran 6.6 0.5 4.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.3
Alaska Air 29.1 32.1 33.8 3.3 -1.7 -1.5 2.7 -0.8
America West 3.5 12.5 10.2 -4.3 -6.2 -4.4 -4.5 -4.1
AMR (American) 22.3 35.1 69.3 -7.0 -16.2 -11.5 12.4 -3.9
ATA 15.0 10.8 32.9 8.5 -2.0 -2.6 -6.4 -7.2
Continental 26.2 20.9 82.0 9.8 1.4 -1.6 11.1 -1.2
Delta 29.3 32.7 70.3 -1.4 -11.8 -9.9 8.4 -3.1
Frontier 17.0 5.4 0.0 3.2 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.4
Midwest 14.6 8.3 2.7 -0.1 -1.6 -1.1 1.6 0.8
Northwest 15.7 -5.1 66.9 1.6 -4.4 -5.0 7.2 -2.5
Ryanair 32.1 5.5 3.3 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.2 0.9
Southwest 18.5 5.3 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.4 0.7
United 13.5 59.6 186.2 -37.0 -56.1 -39.6 NA -15.4
WestJet 15.9 2.8 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.8 1.6 0.6
Trailing Leading
Market to book multiple Total Capital multiple EBITDA multiple EBIT multiple PE Multiple EBIT multiple PE Multiple
[1/2] [(1+3)/(2+3)] [(1+3)/4] [(1+3)/5] [1/6] [(1+3)/7] [1/8]
AirTran 13.5 2.4 8.6 13.0 25.3 13.9 20.0
Alaska Air 0.9 1.0 19.2 -37.0 -19.3 23.3 -38.8
America West 0.3 0.6 -3.2 -2.2 -0.8 -3.0 -0.8
AMR (American) 0.6 0.9 -13.1 -5.7 -1.9 7.4 -5.7
ATA 1.4 1.1 5.6 -23.8 -5.7 -7.5 -2.1
Continental 1.3 1.1 11.0 77.0 -16.7 9.8 -22.4
Delta 0.9 1.0 -71.6 -8.4 -3.0 11.8 -9.4
Frontier 3.2 3.2 5.3 5.7 8.4 26.6 45.9
Midwest 1.8 1.6 -298.3 -11.0 -13.5 11.2 17.4
Northwest -3.1 1.3 51.6 -18.8 -3.1 11.5 -6.3
Ryanair 5.8 4.0 26.4 38.5 44.0 30.3 34.1
Southwest 3.5 2.9 13.4 18.6 27.6 14.3 28.4
United 0.2 0.8 -5.4 -3.6 -0.3 NA -0.9
WestJet 5.6 4.4 8.1 12.7 19.6 10.6 26.9
Data source: Actual numbers for 2001 are from company annual reports. Estimates for 2002 are from Valueline when available, otherwise
consensus analyst estimates are used. All stock prices are quoted as of December 31, 2001. Ryanair figures are based on the respective
American Deposit Receipt prices. Westjet figures are in Canadian dollars. 1 US dollar = 1.5870 Canadian dollars as of March 31, 2002. The
calculation procedure for the valuation multiples is defined in the lower panel based on the numbered variables defined in the upper panel.

Exhibit 8

Exhibit 8
JETBLUE AIRWAYS IPO VALUATION
Historical Annual Growth Rates for Low Fare Airlines
$ Revenue Growth $ Gross Equipment Growth
Year AirTran ATA Frontier Ryanair Southwest AirTran ATA Frontier Ryanair Southwest
1970
1971
1972 -20% 177%
1973 5% 55%
1974 28% 61%
1975 32% 54%
1976 51% 35%
1977 101% 59%
1978 42% 66%
1979 46% 68%
1980 32% 57%
1981 35% 27%
1982 45% 23%
1983 18% 35%
1984 35% 20%
1985 49% 27%
1986 10% 13%
1987 -5% 1%
1988 24% 11%
1989 14% 18%
1990 10% 17%
1991 14% 11%
1992 20% 28%
1993 1% 21% 11% 36%
1994 456% 21% 18% 2204% 24% 13%
1995 186% 18% 49% 13% 175% 23% 186% 11%
1996 -4% 2% 125% 20% 10% -40% 5% 66% 25% 19%
1997 49% 20% 39% N/A 16% -4% 4% 26% 15% 12%
1998 18% 21% 56% N/A 19% 108% 17% 50% 29% 9%
1999 -20% 39% 105% 39% 19% 15% 22% 50% 11% 14%
2000 35% 23% 79% 68% 16% 24% 15% 43% 21% 19%
2001 -22% -58% 237% 12% 7% -1% -6% -2%
Source: Compustat

Exhibit 13

Exhibit 13
JETBLUE AIRWAYS IPO VALUATION
JetBlue Financial Forecast
$ figures in millions Actual Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Number of aircraft 21 34 48 62 74 86 98 108 113 117
$ Revenue/plane $15.3 $17.6 $18.4 $19.2 $20.1 $21.0 $21.9 $22.8 $23.8 $24.9
Expected inflation 16% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Operating margin 8.4% 13.3% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2%
$ Depreciation/plane $0.5 $0.5 $0.5 $0.6 $0.6 $0.6 $0.7 $0.7 $0.7 $0.8
$ CapEx/New planes $21.3 $22.3 $23.5 $24.6 $25.9 $27.1 $28.5 $29.9 $31.4 $33.0
Expected inflation 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
NWC Turnover 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4
Revenue $320 $600 $884 $1,192 $1,485 $1,802 $2,144 $2,466 $2,694 $2,912
Cash expenses 283 502 723 975 1,215 1,474 1,753 2,016 2,202 2,380
Depreciation 10 18 26 36 45 54 65 75 83 90
EBIT 27 80 134 181 226 274 326 375 410 443
Tax 34% 9 27 46 62 77 93 111 127 139 151
NOPAT 18 53 89 120 149 181 215 247 270 292
Capital expenditure 234 290 328 345 310 326 342 299 157 132
Net working capital 34 63 94 126 157 191 227 261 285 308
Fixed assets 530 802 1,104 1,413 1,679 1,950 2,227 2,451 2,526

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